Pronóstico: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers face off at Comerica Park on Thursday, 25 June at 6:40 PM ET, with the Astros needing a win to resolve this contract as "Houston Astros". Polymarket prices this conditional token at 100% YES for the Astros, a stark divergence from traditional bookmakers where the Tigers hold a 56.2% win probability[5]. This on-chain pricing, settled in USDC on Polygon, suggests traders are betting on a specific outcome rather than the raw statistical likelihood, mirroring historical cases where 100% prices on prediction markets preceded late-game upsets or data discrepancies in official feeds. In past MLB contracts, such absolute pricing often resolved only after a postponed game was completed or a tie was declared, forcing a 50-50 split rather than a clear winner[4].

Traders must monitor the official final statistics from the governing body, as any postponement keeps the market open until completion, while a cancellation or tie triggers the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent odds analysis indicates the Tigers are favoured by -114 on the moneyline, with the combined score set at 9 runs, making the over 8.5 a key betting angle for the underlying event[1]. The primary catalyst is the confirmation of the starting lineups and any injury reports released before the 6:40 PM ET start, as these dependencies directly influence the win probability. With no odds currently available on some platforms[3], the on-chain price of 100% may reflect a lack of liquidity rather than a guaranteed Astros victory, requiring traders to watch for volume shifts as the settlement window closes on 2 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.