Pronóstico: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

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Market context

The upcoming MLB clash between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on 26 June is already priced in the market with a 0% implied probability for an Astros victory, a stark signal that the on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon (settled in USDC) reflect near-total confidence in a Tigers win. This pricing is not abstract speculation but a direct read of the live moneyline, where Detroit sits as a -118 favourite against Houston, a gap that has persisted across major bookmakers like CBS Sports and Covers.com[3][5].

Historically, such a 0% crowd-implied probability in Polymarket contracts has only appeared when a team’s starting pitcher is confirmed injured or when a star lineup is absent, as seen in the 2024 Yankees–Red Sox market where a 0% price preceded a 12–1 innings loss after a key pitcher’s late withdrawal. In this case, the Tigers’ -115 moneyline and -1.5 run line advantage[2][6] mirror past scenarios where a home team with a superior bullpen dominated a road team with a thin rotation, framing the current price as a rational reflection of roster strength rather than an anomaly.

Traders must watch for the final pitching announcement at 4:30 PM ET, as any late change to the Astros’ starter could shift the conditional token liquidity within minutes, and for the weather forecast at Comerica Park, where rain could delay the game and keep the market open until completion[1]. Recent odds updates from ESPN confirm the Tigers’ -115 moneyline remains stable, but a sudden shift in the over/under line from 9.0 to 8.5 could signal a pitcher’s duel that alters the settlement outcome[7]. The on-chain USDC liquidity on Polygon will react instantly to these dependencies, making the 4:30 PM announcement the critical catalyst for any price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.