Pronóstico: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Market context

The Houston Astros defeated the Detroit Tigers 7–5 in their MLB game on 28 June 2026, a result that fully resolves the prediction market contract to "YES" for the Astros winning. This outcome aligns with pre-game moneyline odds where the Astros were favoured by –124, and the run line set them as 1.5-run winners, confirming the market’s 100% conditional probability was justified by the actual on-field result [1][2].

Historically, similar MLB markets with 100% crowd-implied probabilities have resolved cleanly when the favoured team won outright, as seen in past Astros road games where their –1.5 run line coverage matched the final score differential [3][4]. In these cases, the on-chain USDC settlement on Polygon executed without delay, as conditional tokens automatically mapped the official final statistics from the governing body to the resolution source, eliminating ambiguity [2].

Traders should monitor post-game injury updates and roster announcements for both clubs, as these can influence future matchups and market liquidity. The Astros’ third-place standing in the AL West and the Tigers’ fourth-place position in the AL Central suggest ongoing competitive pressure, with recent DraftKings odds reinforcing the Astros’ continued favouritism in upcoming fixtures [3][5]. No further catalysts are needed, as the game has concluded and the market has settled.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.