Pronóstico: New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Mets at **61% yes** on the conditional token, so the contract is trading as a modest favourite rather than a lock. Because settlement runs through the 12 August window and resolves on the official final result, the practical job for a user is to watch the game status, line-up confirmations and any postponement risk, then let the USDC-backed position on Polygon settle against the token outcome.

That 61% looks broadly in line with recent bookmaker and model lean, which has tended to sit in the mid-50s to low-60s for New York depending on the book. Fox Sports listed New York at a 49% win chance and Cleveland at 51% on 5 August, while SportsGrid’s preview put the Mets at 61% against the Guardians for the same matchup, showing how sensitive the pricing has been to pitching and lineup assumptions.[8][14] Earlier similar Mets-Guardians meetings also produced short totals around 7.5 to 8 runs, suggesting the market has been treating this as a relatively tight, lower-scoring game rather than a mismatch.[1][2][16]

For a trader, the main catalysts are the confirmed starting pitchers, any late scratches, and whether the game remains scheduled for its planned 6:40 pm ET start. If the matchup is delayed or suspended, the contract stays open until completion; only a cancellation with no make-up, or a tie, pushes it to a 50-50 settlement, which matters more on-chain than the on-field narrative. In practice, Polymarket users will want to monitor the official MLB game feed and any weather or travel updates, because those are the events most likely to move a tokenised market before first pitch.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.