Pronóstico: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees face the Boston Red Sox tonight at Fenway Park in a 7:10pm ET MLB clash, with the crowd-implied probability favouring the Yankees at 56% on Polymarket. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, currently prices the Yankees as the likely winner, reflecting their superior season form compared to the struggling Red Sox.

Historically, this probability aligns with the Yankees' 48-31 record versus the Red Sox's 32-46 slump, mirroring past matchups where the Yankees dominated as favourites despite home-field disadvantages. In comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons, similar 55-60% crowd probabilities for the Yankees resulted in wins 78% of the time, suggesting the market is accurately pricing their 88% season win rate against the Red Sox's 12% [1][3].

Traders should monitor the starting pitcher announcements scheduled before 6:00pm ET, as a late rotation change could shift the probability significantly. Recent simulations predict a 4-3 Yankees victory, but the Red Sox's +1.5 run line odds of -128 indicate a potential narrow margin that could test the 56% threshold [2]. Any weather delays or injury updates from the YES Network will be critical dependencies before the settlement window closes on 2 July 2026 [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.