Pronóstico: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

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Market context

The Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees 6–1 in their June 26 matchup, a result that directly explains the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a Yankees win in this specific market contract[5]. On Polymarket, this conditional token is priced in USDC on the Polygon network, where the market has already settled its directional bias following the final score[2]. Traders viewing the on-chain mechanics see that the probability reflects the completed game outcome rather than an abstract future event, as the settlement window confirms the game has been played and resolved[5].

Historically, MLB markets where the primary event has concluded show near-zero volatility once the final statistics are recognised by the governing body, mirroring how this contract now behaves[1]. Comparable cases from the 2025 season demonstrate that when a game ends decisively, conditional tokens lock in their resolution value immediately, preventing further speculative trading on the outcome[3]. The 58.1% pre-game win probability for the Yankees cited by numberNumber has been superseded by the actual 6–1 loss, rendering the original prediction irrelevant for current valuation[1].

Traders should monitor official injury reports and schedule adjustments for any potential make-up games if the original contest were deemed invalid, though the 6–1 score confirms validity[6]. Recent news from FanDuel highlights the over/under line of 9 runs set for this fixture, which aligns with the high-scoring nature of the Red Sox victory[1]. No further announcements are expected as the game is complete, and the market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" based on the official final statistics[5]. The conditional token structure ensures that USDC payouts are distributed automatically once the governing body confirms the result[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.