Pronóstico: Athletics vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Platform comparison

Market context

The Athletics defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5–2 in their MLB game on Monday, 20 July 2026, with Jeff McNeil delivering a pinch-hit single in the seventh inning to secure the go-ahead runs [1][3]. The contest concluded in Phoenix, marking the start of a three-run road victory for the Athletics and confirming their win ahead of the market’s settlement window [2].

In prediction markets, a 100% YES probability for a team to win typically resolves once the game ends and the result is official, mirroring past MLB contracts where on-chain outcomes locked immediately after the final score was recorded by the governing body. Conditional tokens on Polygon, settled in USDC, reflect this certainty once the event is complete, as seen in similar sports markets where post-game confirmation triggers automatic resolution without further trading activity.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics for any late adjustments, though the 5–2 result is already widely reported across major outlets [1][3]. No further catalysts are expected, as the game is finished and the settlement window closes on 28 July 2026, with no possibility of postponement or cancellation affecting the outcome [5]. The market’s resolution is now purely administrative, dependent on the governing body’s confirmation of the final score.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.