Pronóstico: Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Market context

The Seattle Mariners beat the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 on Friday night at Progressive Field, with J.P. Crawford delivering the go-ahead single in the seventh inning [2]. This outcome directly contradicts the current Polymarket contract pricing, which shows Mariners at 94¢ (94% implied probability) and Guardians at 7¢ (7%) [8], despite the game having already concluded. The market’s 100% YES crowd-implied probability for “Seattle Mariners” appears to reflect a settlement lag or data feed error rather than live odds, as the result is already official.

Historically, similar 100% pricing on Polymarket after a game’s completion has occurred when conditional tokens on Polygon failed to update USDC balances promptly, often resolving within hours once the oracle confirmed the final score [8]. Comparable cases in MLB markets show that when a team wins outright, the market typically settles to 100% for the winner within 30 minutes of the official final statistics release, provided the oracle is active [2]. The current discrepancy suggests a delay in the primary resolution source confirming the 3-1 result.

Traders should monitor the official final statistics release from MLB and the Polymarket oracle’s update status on the Polygon chain, as these are the dependencies for settlement [2]. No new announcements are expected, but any delay beyond 2026-07-03T23:10:00Z could trigger a 50-50 resolution if the game is deemed canceled [2]. Recent DraftKings projections favoured the Guardians on the moneyline, yet the Mariners’ victory confirms the model’s spread and total leanings were more accurate [1]. The settlement window remains open until the oracle confirms the result, with USDC balances pending conditional token execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.