Pronóstico: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Platform comparison

Market context

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8–7 on Sunday, 19 July 2026, after rallying from a seven-run deficit and securing a walk-off RBI double by Max Kepler in the 10th inning[1][2]. Because the game has already concluded with a Diamondbacks victory, the prediction market titled “St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks” correctly shows a 0% YES probability for the Cardinals winning, as the outcome is settled and no further uncertainty exists.

Historically, Polymarket contracts for completed MLB games resolve instantly once official final statistics are published, with conditional tokens on Polygon automatically redeeming for USDC based on the result[1]. In comparable cases where a game ends before the settlement window, traders see probabilities collapse to 0% or 100% within minutes of the final whistle, reflecting the on-chain mechanics that tie token value directly to the verified event outcome rather than crowd sentiment.

With the game already finished, there are no pending catalysts such as pitcher announcements, schedule changes, or postponement risks to monitor[3]. The only dependency is the official confirmation from MLB’s final statistics, which serves as the primary resolution source; once logged, the market closes and payouts are distributed automatically via the conditional token system on Polygon.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.