Pronóstico: San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

San Jose Earthquakes will host St. Louis City SC on 15 August at 10:30 PM ET in an MLS regular-season fixture. Polymarket currently prices additional markets around this match at 7% YES, reflecting trader conviction that supplementary betting contracts—likely on specific player performances, corner counts, or card totals—will settle affirmatively. The settlement window closes 16 August at 02:30 UTC, giving roughly 16 hours post-kickoff for resolution data to flow onto Polygon and trigger conditional token payouts in USDC.

Historical MLS fixture markets show that niche outcome contracts (assists, yellow cards, shots on target) typically see lower implied probabilities than match-result markets, partly because they require precise statistical verification and partly because liquidity fragments across multiple conditional tokens. San Jose's home record and St. Louis City's recent form will anchor trader positioning, but the 7% probability suggests the market is pricing either a low-likelihood specific event or significant uncertainty about whether the supplementary market will even trigger settlement conditions cleanly.

Traders should monitor team news through mid-August for injury updates or lineup changes that could shift expected performance metrics. MLS official box scores and StatsBomb data feeds are the likely settlement sources, so any delays in official reporting could extend the settlement window. Recent fixture data from both clubs' August schedules will also clarify whether either side is rotating players heavily, which could suppress totals across assist, tackle, and card markets that often underpin these secondary contracts.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: San Jose Earthquakes vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.