Pronóstico: NBA Summer League: Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics

Platform comparison

Market context

The NBA Summer League clash between the Sacramento Kings and Boston Celtics, scheduled for 15 July at 8:00PM ET, has already concluded on the court, with Boston securing a 91–85 victory. Despite this definitive result, the Polymarket contract for this matchup remains open with a 0% implied probability for the Kings winning, reflecting the on-chain reality that the game outcome is settled but the market settlement window extends until 16 July 2026. Traders holding conditional tokens on the Kings side face a near-certain loss, as the final score including overtime confirms Boston’s win, while USDC balances on the Polygon network await the official resolution.

Historically, Summer League prediction markets with 0% crowd-implied probability for one side after a game has been played typically resolve quickly once the official score is verified, mirroring past cases where delayed settlements occurred only due to technical disputes or postponed fixtures. In this instance, no such ambiguity exists; ESPN and DraftKings both confirm Boston as the winner, with oddsmakers having installed them as modest favourites at -1.5 on the spread [1][5]. The 0% probability for the Kings aligns with the consensus that this was not a coin flip but a clear Celtics victory, consistent with their 2–1 Summer League record versus Sacramento’s 1–2 standing [1].

Key catalysts for traders now centre solely on the settlement trigger: the official confirmation of the final score by the NBA and the subsequent closure of the market at the 16 July deadline. No further announcements, roster changes, or schedule dependencies will alter the outcome, as the game is complete. The only dependency is the platform’s automated resolution process, which will convert the winning conditional tokens into USDC for Boston holders once the settlement window closes [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.