Pronóstico: North America Regional Qualifier: Qualify to The International

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Regional Qualifier for The International 2026 is set to begin today, offering a single slot for the global group stage, yet the Polymarket contract currently prices the chance of a North American qualifier winning at 0% YES. This zero probability reflects the on-chain reality where conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, show no liquidity or confidence in a North American team advancing through this specific tier. The market treats the contract as effectively void, mirroring how traders dismiss events with insurmountable structural barriers or historical precedents of failure.

Historically, North American Dota 2 teams have struggled to secure direct invites or win regional qualifiers in recent years, often falling to stronger European or Asian contenders in high-stakes matches. Comparable cases from The International 2024 and 2025 show that North America rarely claims the single regional slot, with teams like TSM or Evil Geniuses failing to progress despite strong open qualifier performances. This pattern frames the current 0% price not as an anomaly but as a continuation of a decade-long trend where the region lacks the depth to overcome the unified qualifier format.

Traders should monitor the official announcement of the full tournament field once qualifiers wrap on June 28, as confirmed by the Dota 2 news entry detailing the single North American slot and the unified European system[2]. Key catalysts include the live match results from the June 24–26 qualifier, the official list of Group Stage participants published before August 15, and any potential cancellation or postponement that would resolve the market to "Other"[2]. Recent coverage from GosuGamers highlights the shift to seven direct invites and the new unified regional structure, which further complicates North America’s path[3]. Watch for real-time updates on Liquipedia as matches unfold, since the outcome hinges entirely on the final regional winner[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.