Pronóstico: Hammarby IF vs. Degerfors IF - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

Hammarby IF defeated Degerfors IF 1–0 in their Allsvenskan fixture on 26 May 2025, a result that aligns with the overwhelming historical dominance Hammarby holds over this opponent. The contract on Polymarket now sits at 100% YES for the “More Markets” outcome, reflecting a crowd that treats the settlement as certain given the match has already concluded and the result is confirmed. On-chain, this means USDC payouts on Polygon are locked for YES holders, with conditional tokens fully resolved as the event window closed before today’s UTC timestamp.

Historically, Hammarby has won nine of the last 11 meetings against Degerfors, with zero wins for Degerfors and two draws [2]. This 82% win rate in head-to-head clashes, combined with the confirmed 1–0 outcome from May 2025, frames the 100% probability not as speculation but as post-event certainty. In comparable Polymarket cases where the underlying event concluded before settlement, contracts resolved instantly at 100% or 0% once the official result was verified, eliminating any residual uncertainty for traders.

With the match already played and the score confirmed, there are no pending catalysts, announcements, or schedule dependencies to monitor. The settlement window ending 2026-07-19T14:30:00Z has passed, and the result is final. Traders should note that the 100% YES price reflects a resolved state, not an active prediction, meaning no new information can alter the outcome. The on-chain mechanics have already executed the payout logic, and conditional tokens are now redeemable for their full USDC value.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.