Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Malmo FF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Degerfors IF (-1.5) | 0% |
| Malmo FF (-2.5) | 0% |
| Degerfors IF (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Malmo FF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Degerfors IF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Malmö FF v Degerfors IF is the underlying Allsvenskan fixture, and Polymarket is pricing the broader “more markets” contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is saying there is effectively no expectation that a qualifying extra market will settle in the affirmative. On Polymarket, that exposure is held in **USDC** and resolved through **conditional tokens** on **Polygon**, so the price reflects on-chain positioning rather than an abstract view of the football match itself.
That 0% read sits in contrast to the football history: Malmö have dominated this match-up, with head-to-head records showing either a clean sweep or near-sweep across recent meetings, including figures of 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10, or 9 wins and 1 draw depending on the database used.[16][19] Recent preview pages also describe Malmö as the stronger side, while Degerfors have been listed as coming in off a poor run, which is the sort of form profile that usually keeps ancillary markets concentrated around one-way pre-match expectations rather than a broad set of live contingencies.[7][8]
For traders, the key catalysts are not just the result but the match-day mechanics: confirmed line-ups, late injury or rotation news, and any schedule changes that could affect which “more markets” are offered before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off.[1][4] Current listing pages place kick-off at 12:00 UTC / 14:00 CEST at Eleda Stadion, so any market movement will likely come from pre-match announcements rather than in-play information, and the contract’s odds can move quickly if the exchange adds or removes qualifying micro-markets before resolution.[1][4][18]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Pronóstico: Malmo FF vs. Degerfors IF - More Markets on Polymarket Qué Es
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