Pronóstico: Orgryte IS vs. Djurgardens IF

Platform comparison

Market context

Orgryte IS and Djurgardens IF are locked in a live Allsvenskan fixture at Gamla Ullevi tonight, with the match already finished as a 0–0 draw. On Polymarket, the YES contract for an Orgryte win sits at 0% implied probability, reflecting the on-chain reality that the outcome is settled and the conditional tokens are now redeemable for USDC on Polygon. The market price is not a forecast but a confirmation of the final score, rendering further trading futile as the settlement window closes shortly.

Historically, similar Allsvenskan contracts where the underlying event concluded before settlement have collapsed to zero or one instantly once official results are confirmed. In this case, the 0% price aligns with the match outcome, whereas pre-match models had favoured Djurgardens IF heavily, projecting a 57.73% to 67.4% win probability for the away side before the game ended in a stalemate[1][3]. This mirrors past instances where early result confirmations on sports data feeds force immediate price corrections on-chain, eliminating any ambiguity for token holders.

Traders should monitor the official Allsvenskan result feed and the Polymarket settlement oracle for the final confirmation of the 0–0 score, which triggers USDC redemption for YES or NO holders. No further announcements, lineup changes, or schedule dependencies apply, as the fixture is complete and the result is recorded across multiple sports data sources[2][5]. The only catalyst remaining is the oracle’s formal settlement, which will lock in the payout and close the market permanently.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.