Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Daniil Donchenko has officially defeated Theodor Berggren at UFC Baku, finishing him in the second round, which explains the current 0% YES price on Polymarket for Berggren winning this bout. The contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, now reflects a settled outcome rather than an open wager, as the fight has already concluded and the official result is confirmed by the UFC.

Historically, markets that retain open pricing after a fight’s conclusion—such as when a result is reversed or a no-contest ruling is overturned—rarely exceed fair value, and most resolve to 50/50 only if the official result is voided. In this case, with Donchenko’s win already recorded and highlighted on UFC.com, there is no precedent for Berggren to be declared the winner, making the 0% price a direct reflection of settled on-chain reality rather than speculative uncertainty.

Traders should monitor the UFC’s official resolution source for any post-fight administrative changes, though such reversals are exceptionally rare in MMA. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-28T03:59:59.999Z and the fight already completed on June 27, 2026, no further catalysts exist to alter the outcome. As confirmed by UFC.com’s recent highlight release, Donchenko’s victory is final, and the market will resolve accordingly with no pending dependencies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.