Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Match O/U 22.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 1 Winner | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 5% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 51% YES probability for Pronóstico: National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff. This market refers to the tennis match between Belinda Bencic and Coco Gauff in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Belinda Be…
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: National Bank Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauff across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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