Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez. This market refers to the tennis match between Eva Vedder and Georgina Garcia Perez in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 19, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Eva Vedder vs Georgina Garcia Perez across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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