Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 92% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| Valencia CF O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 54% |
| Valencia CF 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| O/U 2.5 | 47% |
| Real Betis Balompié 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Real Betis Balompié 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 44% |
| Valencia CF 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| Valencia CF O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| Real Betis Balompié 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | 16% |
| Valencia CF 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Valencia CF (-1.5) | 14% |
| Real Betis Balompié O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Valencia CF O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Real Betis Balompié 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Valencia CF 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Valencia CF (-2.5) | 5% |
| Real Betis Balompié (-2.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of pronóstico: valencia cf vs. real betis balompié - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the La Liga game, scheduled for August 25 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: Valencia CF vs. Real Betis Balompié - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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