Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 99% |
| Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 92% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 76% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 63% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 25% |
| Game 2 Winner | 13% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 13% |
| Match Winner | 3% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: lol: furia esports vs dplus kia (bo3) - esports world cup group a stands at 99% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between FURIA Esports and Dplus KIA in the Esports World Cup Group A, initially scheduled for July 15 at 12:10PM ET. Th…
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: LoL: FURIA Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: FURIA Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - … on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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