Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 78% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 67% |
| Game 3 Winner | 67% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 67% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5) | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 60% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 37% |
| Game Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) | 32% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 31% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 78% chance of pronóstico: lol: g2 esports vs lyon (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between G2 Esports and LYON in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 10 at 4:00AM ET. This…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON (BO5) - Mid-Seas… on Polymarket Qué Es
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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