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Pronóstico: LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "Pronóstico: LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 98% Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) 95% Game 1 Winner 92% Game 2 Winner 92% Volume: $127K Liquidity: $461K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
98% 2% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
98% 2% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)95%
Game 1 Winner92%
Game 2 Winner92%
Game 3 Winner92%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)79%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?73%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon70%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?67%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?67%
Odd/Even Total Kills60%
Game 4 Winner59%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?58%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon53%
First Blood in Game 1?53%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Any Player Quadra Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Any Player Quadra Kill48%
Any Player Quadra Kill48%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor47%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor47%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors46%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors45%
Any Player Penta Kill38%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?32%
O/U 3.5 Games21%
O/U 4.5 Games5%

Market context

Market consensus: 98% chance of pronóstico: lol: t1 vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This m…

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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