Pronóstico: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the New York Yankees tonight at Yankee Stadium in a 7:05 PM ET MLB clash, with the Tigers currently holding a 45% crowd-implied chance to win the game. On Polymarket, this conditional token contract trades at 0.45 USDC on the Polygon network, reflecting a market that sees the Yankees as the slight favourite despite the Tigers’ +1.5 run line advantage in traditional betting lines[1][6].

Historically, when a team with a 45% win probability plays at home against a superior opponent like the Yankees (46-34 record versus the Tigers’ 34-48), the underdog often covers the spread but loses the moneyline, mirroring patterns seen in June 2025 matchups where similar odds produced a 52% underdog loss rate[5]. The Yankees’ -130 moneyline and -1.5 run line in traditional markets[1] align with the 0.45 price, suggesting the market correctly prices the Yankees’ road dominance against a struggling Tigers squad.

Traders should monitor the probable pitchers’ announcements before 6:00 PM ET, as a late starter change for the Tigers could shift the price toward 0.40, while any weather delays pushing the game past 9:00 PM ET would increase the 50-50 tie risk if the game is ultimately cancelled[7]. Recent expert picks favour the Yankees to win outright, with Jason Sharpe of Doc Sports selecting the Yankees as his free play for this matchup, reinforcing the current pricing[4]. The settlement window closes on 6 July 2026, but the game’s outcome will resolve this market immediately upon completion.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.