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Pronóstico: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Pronóstico: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 69% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 57% NRFI 54% Volume: $272K Liquidity: $829K Closes: 10 Jul 2026
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Pronóstico: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 81% 19% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 81% 19% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.581%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.569%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.557%
NRFI54%
O/U 9.554%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.545%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals43%
Spread -1.542%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.539%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.535%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.528%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.524%
1st 5 Innings Spread -2.514%
Extra Innings10%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 81% probability to pronóstico: pittsburgh pirates vs. washington nationals. In the upcoming MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 3 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 81% for "Pronóstico: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 81% Other 19%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $272K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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