Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 204.5 | 94% |
| O/U 206.5 | 93% |
| O/U 208.5 | 92% |
| O/U 210.5 | 90% |
| O/U 212.5 | 86% |
| O/U 214.5 | 83% |
| O/U 216.5 | 79% |
| O/U 218.5 | 75% |
| O/U 220.5 | 72% |
| O/U 222.5 | 69% |
| O/U 224.5 | 64% |
| O/U 226.5 | 61% |
| Heat vs. Hornets | 57% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| O/U 228.5 | 55% |
| Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 1H O/U 119.5 | 52% |
| 1H Moneyline | 52% |
| Team to Score First | 51% |
| O/U 230.5 | 51% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Odd/Even Score | 50% |
| Overtime? | 50% |
| Race to 10 | 50% |
| Race to 20 | 50% |
| Race to 30 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Steals O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 14.5 | 49% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 5.5 | 48% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 34.5 | 47% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 39.5 | 47% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| O/U 232.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 46% |
| Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 3.5 | 45% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 19.5 | 44% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -5.5 | 42% |
| O/U 234.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Spread -6.5 | 39% |
| O/U 236.5 | 39% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 38% |
| Brandon Miller: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| Spread -7.5 | 36% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 36% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 9.5 | 36% |
| Spread -2.5 | 35% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 14.5 | 35% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 24.5 | 35% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 19.5 | 35% |
| Spread -8.5 | 34% |
| O/U 238.5 | 34% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 15.5 | 33% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 17.5 | 33% |
| Spread -9.5 | 32% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 240.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 28.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 44.5 | 28% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 22.5 | 28% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 39.5 | 27% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 27% |
| Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| Spread -11.5 | 26% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 5.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Points O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 24.5 | 24% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 19.5 | 21% |
| Spread -15.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 11.5 | 17% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 16% |
| O/U 250.5 | 15% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 15% |
| Spread -12.5 | 14% |
| Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| O/U 252.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Brandon Miller: Points O/U 29.5 | 14% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 5.5 | 13% |
| Brandon Miller: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | 13% |
| Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 24.5 | 12% |
| Brandon Miller: Assists O/U 5.5 | 12% |
| O/U 254.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| O/U 256.5 | 8% |
| Bam Adebayo: 3-Pointers Made O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 7% |
| O/U 258.5 | 7% |
| O/U 260.5 | 7% |
| Spread -18.5 | 6% |
| Spread -23.5 | 6% |
| Bam Adebayo: Assists O/U 7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -22.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 5% |
| Spread -25.5 | 5% |
| Spread -29.5 | 3% |
| Spread -31.5 | 3% |
| Spread -24.5 | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 94% YES probability for Pronóstico: Heat vs. Hornets. In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 24 at 6:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Hornets". If the game is postponed,…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $103K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade Pronóstico: Heat vs. Hornets on Polymarket Qué Es
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