Pronóstico: Tunisia vs. Netherlands - More Markets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group F match between Tunisia and Netherlands kicks off at 7:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at GEHA Field in Kansas City, with the crowd-implied probability for “more markets” sitting at 28% YES. On Polymarket, this contract trades today at that 28% level, reflecting conditional token pricing on the Polygon network where USDC (USDC) serves as the settlement currency. The on-chain mechanics mean traders are betting not on the match outcome itself, but on whether additional betting markets will be opened or expanded for this fixture, a nuance that shapes the current valuation.

Historically, similar “more markets” contracts in World Cup group stages have hovered between 25% and 35% when one team is a clear favourite, as seen in the 2022 Netherlands vs Qatar match where market depth expanded only after the Dutch secured a 2-0 lead. The Netherlands’ strong over/under trend—scoring seven goals across two games and favouring an Over 3.5 pick at +114 odds [2]—suggests bookmakers may delay opening new markets until the match dynamics become clearer, keeping the probability suppressed.

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements from FIFA regarding market expansions, as well as live goal updates that could trigger conditional token settlements. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports highlights the Netherlands’ offensive momentum and the Over 3.5 expectation [2], which may influence whether bookmakers open additional markets mid-game. Any delay in market expansion announcements or a low-scoring first half could further reduce the likelihood of “more markets,” reinforcing the current 28% valuation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.