Pronóstico: IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

IF Elfsborg and IK Sirius played out a 0–0 draw in their Allsvenskan fixture at Borås Arena on Sunday, 19 July 2026, confirming the underlying event has already concluded with no goals scored [3]. On Polymarket today, the “More Markets” contract for this match trades at a 0% YES probability, reflecting the settled outcome rather than speculative pricing on an open event. The on-chain settlement, finalised in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, now locks in the result as the match report is publicly verified [1].

Historically, Allsvenskan “More Markets” contracts tied to goal-based outcomes (such as over/under 2.5 goals) have settled at 0% YES when the match ends goalless, mirroring this case where pre-match odds favoured over 2.5 goals at –160 but the final score was 0–0 [4][3]. Comparable fixtures in the 2025–26 Allsvenskan season with similar pre-match over/under pricing also saw 0% settlement when defensive tactics or poor finishing led to nil-nil results, reinforcing that the current probability aligns with established settlement patterns for low-scoring Swedish league games.

Traders should monitor the official match report and line-up confirmations released post-game, as these are the primary catalysts for settlement validation on Polymarket. The line-up report from Court Offside confirms both teams played a 4-6-3 formation, which correlates with the defensive structure that produced the 0–0 outcome [1][4]. No further announcements or schedule dependencies remain, as the settlement window closed at 14:30 UTC on 19 July, and the result is now immutable on-chain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.