🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogSee live odds →

Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner

Live odds for "Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner" pulled from the Polygon order book, alongside the platform attributes of every venue that runs this contract.

Tadej Pogačar 80% Cyclist A 50% Cyclist B 50% Cyclist C 50% Volume: $122K Liquidity: $367K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
Open live market →
Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Tadej Pogačar80%
Cyclist A50%
Cyclist B50%
Cyclist C50%
Cyclist D50%
Cyclist E50%
Cyclist F50%
Cyclist G50%
Cyclist H50%
Cyclist I50%
Cyclist J50%
Cyclist K50%
Cyclist L50%
Cyclist M50%
Cyclist N50%
Cyclist O50%
Cyclist P50%
Cyclist Q50%
Cyclist R50%
Cyclist S50%
Cyclist T50%
Cyclist U50%
Cyclist V50%
Cyclist W50%
Cyclist X50%
Cyclist Y50%
Cyclist Z50%
Cyclist AA50%
Cyclist AB50%
Cyclist AC50%
Cyclist AD50%
Cyclist AE50%
Cyclist AF50%
Cyclist AG50%
Cyclist AH50%
Cyclist AI50%
Cyclist AJ50%
Cyclist AK50%
Cyclist AL50%
Cyclist AM50%
Cyclist AN50%
Cyclist AO50%
Cyclist AP50%
Cyclist AQ50%
Cyclist AR50%
Cyclist AS50%
Cyclist AT50%
Cyclist AU50%
Cyclist AV50%
Cyclist AW50%
Cyclist AX50%
Cyclist AY50%
Cyclist AZ50%
Cyclist BA50%
Cyclist BB50%
Cyclist BC50%
Cyclist BD50%
Cyclist BE50%
Cyclist BF50%
Cyclist BG50%
Cyclist BH50%
Cyclist BI50%
Cyclist BJ50%
Cyclist BK50%
Cyclist BL50%
Cyclist BM50%
Cyclist BN50%
Cyclist BO50%
Cyclist BP50%
Cyclist BQ50%
Cyclist BR50%
Cyclist BS50%
Cyclist BT50%
Cyclist BU50%
Cyclist BV50%
Cyclist BW50%
Cyclist BX50%
Cyclist BY50%
Cyclist BZ50%
Cyclist CA50%
Cyclist CB50%
Other50%
Jonas Vingegaard17%
Paul Seixas2%
Remco Evenepoel1%
Florian Lipowitz1%
Isaac del Toro1%
Juan Ayuso0%
Tobias Halland Johannessen0%
Tom Pidcock0%
Cian Uijtdebroeks0%
Mattias Skjelmose0%
Richard Carapaz0%
Antonio Tiberi0%
Derek Gee-West0%
Matteo Jorgenson0%
Thymen Arensman0%
Adam Yates0%
Jai Hindley0%
Lenny Martinez0%
Ben O'Connor0%
Kévin Vauquelin0%
Ben Healy0%
Luke Plapp0%
Lennert Van Eetvelt0%
Egan Bernal0%
Brandon McNulty0%
Sepp Kuss0%
Michael Storer0%
Matthew Riccitello0%
Ilan Van Wilder0%
Valentin Paret-Peintre0%
Warren Barguil0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 80% probability to pronóstico: tour de france 2026: winner. This market will resolve to the cyclist that wins the 2026 Tour De France scheduled for July 4, 2026 through July 26, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed cyclist to win the 2026 …

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

Trade Pronóstico: Tour De France 2026: Winner on Polymarket Qué Es

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es.

See all markets →

Related Topics

Sports