Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| AEK O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 71% |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score | 51% |
| AEK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| AEK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 43% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| AEK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| AEK O/U 1.5 | 36% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Team to Advance | 32% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| AEK (-1.5) | 16% |
| AEK O/U 2.5 | 15% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5) | 14% |
| AEK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| AEK (-2.5) | 5% |
| PFK Levski Sofia (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
Market context
Market consensus: 91% chance of pronóstico: pfk levski sofia vs. aek - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 18 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Pronóstico: PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK - More Markets on Polymarket Qué Es
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