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Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)

Five-platform snapshot of "Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell 100% Fight won by KO/TKO? 100% Brener to win by KO/TKO? 100% O/U 0.5 Rounds 100% Volume: $331K Liquidity: $540K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
Open live market →
Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell100%
Fight won by KO/TKO?100%
Brener to win by KO/TKO?100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds100%
Ends before Round 2?100%
Ends before Round 3?100%
Brener in Round 1100%
Harrell to win by KO/TKO?1%
Brener in Round 21%
Brener in Round 31%
Harrell in Round 11%
Harrell in Round 21%
Harrell in Round 31%
Decision or Draw1%
Fight to Go the Distance?0%
Fight won by submission?0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds0%
Fight won by decision?0%

Market context

Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: ufc fight night: elves brener vs. josiah harrell (lightweight, main card). Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Elves Brener" if Elves Brener is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josiah Harrell at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, schedul…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell at 100% for "Pronóstico: UFC Fight Night: Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell (Lightweight, Main Card)".

Elves Brener vs. Josiah Harrell 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $331K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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