Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 64% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 62% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 53% |
| Match Winner | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Winner | 51% |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Bilibili Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5) | 44% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 42% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 40% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 38% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bilibili Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5) | 38% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bilibili Gaming (-2.5) vs Nova Esports (+2.5) | 37% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 37% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Nova Esports (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 35% |
| Map Handicap: NOVA (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | 30% |
| Map Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Nova Esports (+1.5) | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 64% chance of pronóstico: valorant: nova esports vs bilibili gaming (bo3) - vct china stage 2 seed deciders. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Seeding match between Nova Esports and Bilibili Gaming in the VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders, initially scheduled for July 26 at 7:00AM ET. Thi…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gamin… on Polymarket Qué Es
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