Pronóstico: World Cup Group G Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Egypt is set to win Group G at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, having clinched a Round of 32 match against Iran with a decisive victory on Friday, 26 June[1]. The group comprises Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand, with all four teams still in contention for a knockout berth despite each holding just one point[1][2]. This scenario mirrors past World Cup groups where tight point distributions delayed clear group winners until the final matches, forcing reliance on official tiebreak procedures to determine advancement[2].

Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% YES for Egypt, reflecting the on-chain mechanics of USDC on Polygon and conditional tokens that settle only upon official FIFA confirmation[6]. Traders should monitor the final group standings and any tiebreak announcements, as the top two teams—possibly including a third-placed entrant—will advance to the round of 32[2][5]. Recent coverage from Yahoo Sports confirms no definitive scenarios have emerged yet, with the group stage still unfolding in Seattle and Los Angeles[1][7]. The settlement window closes on 27 June 2026, so any delay in declaring a winner beyond this date would resolve the market to “Other” per the contract terms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.