Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Pronóstico: Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Jessica Pieri vs Maria Lourdes Carle. This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pieri and Maria Lourdes Carle in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Je… on Polymarket Qué Es
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