Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Game Spread +/-0.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: us open, qualification wta: elena pridankina vs aliona falei stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Pridankina and Aliona Falei in the US Open, Qualification WTA, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This ma…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Aliona Falei across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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