Pronóstico: STRC hits $100 by…

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, which implies traders see virtually no chance of STRC printing a **$100** one-minute high on TradingView before the 2026-12-31 settlement cut-off. The market settles on the chart’s **1m candle High** for **NASDAQ:STRC** on TradingView, so a brief intraday spike matters more than the close; on-chain, positions are held through Polymarket’s USDC-settled, Polygon-based conditional tokens, so the payoff depends entirely on that quoted data point rather than on any broader narrative around the stock.

The main comparable frame is that STRC has already traded near the psychological **$100** level before, and Strategy has publicly reiterated that its objective is for STRC to trade around **$99–$100**. Recent coverage also shows how quickly this contract can move when the preferred stock rebounds: one report said STRC had climbed roughly 30% as cash reserves improved and Bitcoin stabilised, while another noted the probability of a year-end $100 outcome had been repriced sharply higher in prediction markets. That combination suggests the current zero price is less a statement that $100 is impossible than a view that the required intraday move remains unusually demanding. [1][4][5][9][20]

Traders should watch Strategy’s capital-allocation updates, Bitcoin price swings, and any preferred-stock commentary from management, because STRC’s path appears tightly linked to the company’s balance-sheet strength and crypto-market conditions. One market note highlighted that an ex-Goldman credit veteran argued STRC could return to $100 if Bitcoin reaches about $80,000, underscoring how dependent the preferred is on the broader BTC backdrop rather than on routine equity trading alone. Any new company announcement, cash-reserve change, or sharp move in Bitcoin could therefore matter more for this market than conventional analyst targets, which vary widely and are not designed around TradingView’s one-minute high requirement. [14][18][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: STRC hits $100 by… across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.