Pronóstico: Next Claude Opus released on 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, and on Polygon that means the USDC-backed conditional tokens are currently pricing in no visible path to a publicly available Opus launch before the market’s end date. The reference point is not whether Anthropic may talk about a model internally, but whether a genuinely public release happens and can be accessed through its products, API, or an open sign-up route before 31 July 2026.

The recent cadence matters because Anthropic has been iterating Opus quickly: Opus 4.7 was generally available on 16 April 2026, and Opus 4.8 followed on 28 May 2026, with Anthropic saying it was “available everywhere today”. [5][3] That leaves a short runway, but also a pattern of frequent, incremental Opus updates rather than long gaps, which is the main historical comparator for reading a near-zero market. The relevant precedent is that version bumps have been shipped as direct public launches, not as closed previews, so traders tend to discount purely speculative naming rumours and wait for an official availability announcement. [2][5]

The key catalysts are Anthropic product posts, API documentation updates, and any change in access wording that moves from waitlist or beta to general availability. Watch for launch notes that explicitly name an Opus variant and confirm public access across claude.ai, the API, or major cloud platforms, because those are the sort of signals that have accompanied prior releases. [2][3][5] Any schedule slippage, a shift to another model family such as Sonnet or Haiku, or a launch that is public but not named Opus would matter for settlement and is exactly the sort of nuance Polymarket users need to track.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.