Pronóstico: Which company has best AI model end of June?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market resolves to whichever company owns the model with the highest Chatbot Arena score on 30 June 2026, regardless of who leads today. Polymarket prices the YES contract at 0% on Polygon, reflecting that USDC liquidity is currently locked in conditional tokens betting against any single firm dominating the final snapshot. This pricing ignores the abstract notion of “best” and focuses purely on the on-chain resolution mechanism tied to the leaderboard’s official check.

Historically, similar markets have swung dramatically when late releases alter the final ranking; in 2024, a model released days before the check date overtook the long-term leader, invalidating early bets. The 0% price today mirrors that volatility, as traders recall how Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 now leads the composite index across 357 models, yet the final score remains unconfirmed until the snapshot[1]. Past cases show that early leaders often lose ground if newer architectures outperform in the arena’s Elo system.

Traders must watch for June announcements from major labs, particularly any late-model drops scheduled before 30 June, as these can reset the arena score overnight. The Chatbot Arena leaderboard updates daily, and any new release with a high Elo could displace the current top model[5]. Recent coverage notes that model performance in coding and creative writing tasks heavily influences the final score, making release timing a critical dependency[6]. No moralising is needed; the facts dictate that the 0% price is a rational hedge against the uncertainty of the final snapshot.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.