Pronóstico: Bunschoten: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Filippo Romano

Platform comparison

Market context

Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Filippo Romano are scheduled to meet in a professional tennis match at Bunschoten on 13 July 2026. The Polymarket contract currently reflects zero probability for Bailly's advancement, with all liquidity concentrated on Romano's side. This extreme skew suggests either strong consensus on Romano's superiority or minimal trading activity on a relatively obscure lower-tier fixture. The settlement window extends to 20 July, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling before the market resolves to a 50-50 split.

Bailly, a French player ranked outside the top 500, has competed primarily on ITF and Challenger circuits with limited ATP exposure. Romano, an Italian with similar career trajectory, holds comparable ranking status. Neither player commands significant media coverage or established head-to-head records at professional level. Historical precedent suggests that matches between players of this ranking tier often hinge on recent form, court surface preference, and injury status rather than abstract ability gaps. The zero probability assigned to Bailly reflects either a substantial recent result favouring Romano or an absence of informed trading rather than definitive evidence of outcome.

Traders should monitor official ATP and ITF tournament schedules for confirmation the match proceeds as scheduled. Surface conditions at Bunschoten—typically clay—may favour one player's style. Any withdrawal announcements, injury reports, or weather delays approaching the settlement deadline will trigger resolution mechanics. Recent tournament results for both players, accessible through ATP and ITF databases, provide the most reliable basis for reassessing the current market pricing.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.