Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 99% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 21.5 | 80% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Match O/U 23.5 | 75% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 3% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, pronóstico: estoril open: nuno borges vs roman andres burruchaga stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Nuno Borges and Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Estoril Open, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
This page reviews Pronóstico: Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres Burruchaga across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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