Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 90% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 1 Winner | 69% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 23.5 | 69% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 Winner | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse | 42% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 40% |
| Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 31% |
Market context
Market consensus: 90% chance of pronóstico: winston-salem open: juan manuel cerundolo vs ignacio buse. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Ignacio Buse in the Winston-Salem Open, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 4:00PM ET. This market…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Pronóstico: Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundol… on Polymarket Qué Es
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