Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon and Timofey Skatov are scheduled to meet in the Swiss Open on 13 July 2026, with the winner advancing in the tournament draw. The current Polymarket pricing reflects near-certainty that this match will be played and resolved to a single winner, with conditional tokens on Polygon trading at prices consistent with 100% probability of match completion. Settlement occurs by 20 July, allowing a seven-day window for delays before the market defaults to a 50-50 split.

The 100% implied probability warrants scrutiny against historical patterns in ATP Challenger and lower-tier professional tennis. Matches at this level are cancelled or abandoned at measurable rates—weather disruptions, player injury withdrawals, and administrative issues affect roughly 2–4% of scheduled contests across similar circuits. The Swiss Open's July timing and outdoor clay surface introduce weather dependency; Gstaad experiences afternoon thunderstorms during summer months that have previously forced postponements. Comparable markets on Polymarket for lower-ranked professional matches typically settle with 95–98% completion rates, suggesting current pricing may undervalue cancellation or tie-break scenarios.

Traders should monitor official ATP and Swiss Open announcements for player withdrawals or health updates in the days preceding 13 July. Weather forecasts for Gstaad become actionable 72 hours before match time. Tournament scheduling updates, particularly if earlier matches run long, could delay this fixture beyond the seven-day threshold. News of either player's participation in other events immediately before or after the Swiss Open may signal fitness concerns. The settlement window's 12:00 UTC deadline on 20 July is firm; any unresolved match status at that point triggers the 50-50 resolution clause.

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.