Pronóstico: National Bank Open: Arthur Fils vs Cameron Norrie

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Arthur Fils at **69%** to advance over Cameron Norrie, so the contract already reflects a clear but not overwhelming favourite on Polygon, settled via USDC and conditional tokens. For a user, that means the market is effectively asking whether Fils wins the match before the seven-day delay rule or any no-contest-style outcome pushes settlement to 50-50.

That price is broadly in line with the wider market. Polymarket’s own sports page has Fils around **71%**, Tennis.com projects him at **68%**, and external pricing is similar, with sportsbook odds in the rough -250 to -275 range and live odds around 1.38 to 1.43 for Fils versus about 2.8 to 3.0 for Norrie[5][8][16][4]. The shape of that pricing fits the usual hard-court read: Fils is the younger, higher-rated player and the market is treating him as the likelier winner, but not one with a locked-in path if Norrie can extend rallies and force longer sets.

The main catalysts are operational rather than abstract: the match needs to start on schedule, finish with a winner, and avoid any interruption that triggers the market’s fallback rules. At the time of writing, third-party listings and tournament pages still point to the scheduled Centre Court slot, with the official Polymarket event page showing ongoing interest and volume[11][8][6]. Traders should watch for order-of-play changes, injury or withdrawal news, and any weather or scheduling knock-ons from the National Bank Open draw, because those are the factors most likely to move this contract away from the current favourite price[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.