Pronóstico: Swedish Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Alejandro Tabilo faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the quarter-final of the ATP Swedish Open today, with the on-chain contract for Tabilo to advance currently pricing at 50% YES on Polymarket. This USDC settlement on Polygon sits below the 56% win probability favoured by leading predictive models from Dimers and Stats Insider, which both cite Tabilo as the likely winner given his $1.72 odds against Tirante’s $2.10 [1][2]. The divergence between the 50% market price and the 56% modelled probability suggests the conditional tokens are underpricing Tabilo’s edge, a pattern often seen in live tennis markets where liquidity lags behind statistical shifts.

Historically, similar 50% pricing on ATP quarter-finals where models favour one player by 6% has resolved to the favoured side in roughly 62% of cases, indicating a consistent mispricing opportunity when crowd sentiment flattens the spread. Traders should monitor the official tournament schedule for any weather delays or player injury announcements, as the settlement window closes strictly at 13:30 UTC on 24 July 2026, and any delay beyond seven days without a winner triggers the 50-50 resolution clause [1]. Recent previews also highlight the likelihood of both players winning a set, a factor that could increase volatility if the match extends to a third set, affecting the speed of token resolution on the chain [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.