Pronóstico: Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Lexus Eastbourne Open quarterfinal between Caty McNally and Petra Marčinko is scheduled for Court 1 at 5:30 pm today in Eastbourne, Great Britain, with McNally projected to win in two sets. On Polymarket, this contract currently prices at 100% YES for McNally advancing, reflecting a crowd-implied certainty that the match will proceed and conclude with her victory, despite live scoring platforms projecting a 70% win probability for McNally and 30% for Marčinko[1][2].

Historically, such 100% pricing in conditional token markets often precedes matches where one player is a dominant favourite or where the opponent has withdrawn, yet no formal cancellation has been announced yet; comparable cases from recent WTA tournaments show that when prices hit 100% before play, the event usually resolves cleanly unless weather or injury intervenes, which has not occurred in Eastbourne so far[3][4].

Traders should monitor the official WTA scoreboard for any delay beyond seven days or cancellation notices, as these would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, and watch for live updates from Tennis.com confirming the match start time and completion[2][3]. The key dependency is whether Marčinko remains fit to play, with no recent news indicating withdrawal, but the schedule dependency on Court 1 availability remains a factor to watch closely[2][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.