Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Qué Es) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of pronóstico: monterrey open: yulia starodubtseva vs elise mertens. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Starodubtseva and Elise Mertens in the Monterrey Open, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market wil…
Methodology
We track Pronóstico: Monterrey Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Elise Mertens across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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