Pronóstico: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran publicly agreeing to end all uranium enrichment by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 0% on Polymarket, reflecting the market’s view that such a pledge is virtually impossible under present geopolitical conditions. On-chain, this contract trades as USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens lock liquidity until the settlement window closes in 2026. The zero probability aligns with the fact that Iran has consistently rejected permanent enrichment caps, even as recent talks have focused on temporary suspensions or regional consortium models rather than unilateral abandonment.

Historically, the 2015 JCPOA required Iran to limit enrichment to 3.67% and reduce its stockpile, but those restrictions expired in October 2025, after which Iran resumed higher-level enrichment and expanded its centrifuge programme[3][4]. Unlike the JCPOA, which allowed limited enrichment for civilian needs, the current market demands a full end to all enrichment—a threshold no prior agreement has met. Trump officials have reportedly compelled Iran to agree to a 3.67% cap, but this remains a restriction, not an end, and the MOU leaves key parameters like long-term suspension open for negotiation[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements from the U.S.-Iran talks, particularly any shift from temporary caps to permanent cessation, and watch for IAEA reports on Iran’s 60% enriched uranium stockpile, which has grown to over 400 kg as of May 2025[4]. A draft deal mentioned in June 2026 includes oil sanctions waivers and nuclear limits, but it still permits on-site dilution rather than full enrichment termination[8]. The Strait of Hormuz reopening and economic relief provisions are advancing, yet the core sticking point—enrichment on Iranian soil—remains unresolved[2]. No credible catalyst currently points to Iran agreeing to end enrichment entirely before the deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Pronóstico: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.