Pronóstico: Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump leaving the presidency by July 31, 2026, is currently priced at a 1% implied probability on Polymarket, reflecting the crowd’s view that resignation or removal is highly unlikely before the settlement window closes. This contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, with conditional tokens determining the outcome based on whether the House impeaches and the Senate removes him, or if he voluntarily resigns. The market resolves to “Yes” only upon permanent removal, excluding temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment.

Historically, no US president has resigned or been permanently removed before the end of their term except Richard Nixon, who resigned in 1974 amid impeachment proceedings, and Andrew Johnson, who survived Senate removal by a single vote. Kalshi recently estimated Trump’s removal probability at nearly 28.7% for his second term, a sharp rise from earlier in the year, yet Polymarket’s 1% figure suggests traders see a significant gap between impeachment talks and actual removal before July 2026[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming House impeachment votes, scheduled Senate hearings, and any public statements from key Democrats or Republicans regarding the 25th Amendment. Recent reporting notes Democrats are growing bolder in calling for Trump’s removal after his Iran threats, though no formal action has been taken yet[5]. The next critical date is the House vote on impeachment articles, which could trigger a surge in conditional token prices if it passes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.