Pronóstico: Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sam Bankman-Fried, the crypto founder serving a 25-year sentence for the FTX collapse, has formally petitioned President Trump for a pardon, yet the market prices this outcome at a mere 2% as of today. On Polymarket, traders buying conditional tokens with USDC on the Polygon network see the contract reflecting deep scepticism, with the underlying probability of relief appearing negligible despite the official filing.

Historically, presidential pardons for individuals convicted of massive financial fraud while incarcerated are exceptionally rare, particularly when the White House has previously declined similar requests. Comparable cases show that the Office of the Pardon Attorney typically prioritises applications with strong humanitarian grounds, whereas SBF’s petition for a pardon after sentence completion faces a strategic pause from both the Second Circuit and the pardon office, with his release date still set for 2044[2][3].

Traders should monitor any sudden shifts in the White House’s stance or new developments in SBF’s ongoing appeals, as these are the primary catalysts for a probability spike. However, recent reporting confirms no meaningful shift has emerged from the administration as of June 2026, making meaningful relief unlikely in the near term[4]. The current consensus remains that the calculations do not support his position, and the market is unlikely to move without a definitive, official announcement from the US government[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.