Pronóstico: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

2026 is projected to be among the top five hottest years on record, with some models suggesting it could surpass 2024 to become the warmest year in the instrumental data period[1][2]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 32% implied probability for YES, meaning the crowd believes it is more likely 2026 will rank below number 1 than above it. The market resolves based on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, ranking years in descending order of heat, and settles once official data is published, regardless of later revisions.

Historical precedent shows that La Niña conditions often suppress annual temperatures relative to strong El Niño years like 2023 and 2024. Berkeley Earth estimates that, given the ongoing La Niña, 2026 will likely rank as the fourth warmest year, with only a 5% chance of placing fifth to seventh and a 1% chance of falling to eighth or lower[3]. This aligns with the current 32% YES probability, which reflects uncertainty over whether 2026 will break the 2024 record despite early-year warmth, such as June 2026 being the second-warmest June globally[2].

Traders should monitor the WMO’s updated climate outlooks, which assign an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record[4]. Key catalysts include monthly temperature reports from NCEI and Copernicus, which track sea surface temperatures and surface air anomalies—both critical for determining the final annual rank[2][6]. As the settlement window closes on 31 December 2026, USDC positions on Polygon will resolve automatically once the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data is released, locking in outcomes based on the official numerical rank.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.