Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that figure. Today, Polymarket prices the contract with a 0% implied probability for the “YES” outcome, reflecting a consensus that the event as framed is unlikely to trigger, while the frontrunner outcome is 25°C at 54% and 26°C follows at 23%[1]. This distribution suggests traders are betting on a warm but not extreme summer day, consistent with mid-July norms for the Netherlands.

Historically, July highs at Schiphol typically range between 22°C and 28°C, with 25°C being a frequent median in the past decade. The current 54% weight on 25°C aligns with this pattern, indicating the crowd views a 25°C peak as the most probable, rather than dismissing the day’s heat entirely. The 0% YES probability likely stems from the market’s binary framing not matching the multi-outcome temperature ranges offered, making the “YES” option structurally misaligned with actual settlement logic.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and real-time updates on Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and wind patterns can shift peak temperatures by several degrees. A recent KNMI bulletin notes that July 2026 is experiencing above-average solar radiation, which could push temperatures toward the upper end of the expected range if high-pressure systems persist[1]. On-chain, positions settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with liquidity concentrated in the 25°C and 26°C bins.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Pronóstico: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Qué Es, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Qué Es. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Qué Es trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.